6 types of objects that could cause space debris apocalypse

 

The area surrounding our globe is becoming clogged. Our heads are aloft in the sky as millions of errant space debris fragments and thousands of satellites hurtle towards each other. These are the items that specialists are most afraid of.

The events in near-Earth space have twice made news in the last month alone, prompting experts to urge action. A decades-old Russian rocket upper stage and a long-defunct Russian satellite came within about 20 feet (6 meters) of each other on January 27. Space debris researchers watched in terror. The incident could have produced thousands of hazardous debris fragments that would have remained in orbit for centuries, according to the "worst case scenario" description of the near call. Then, a report made public on February 6 disclosed that in the beginning of January, a mysterious Russian satellite disintegrated into 85 pieces that could be tracked from Earth.

Both of these incidents occurred in "bad neighborhoods," as experts refer to these regions of low Earth orbit, which are too far above the planet to significantly profit from the planet's atmosphere's purifying properties. These two instances involved items that space debris experts consider to be the greatest dangers. The types of things that specialists are most afraid of are discussed here.

 

1. Zenit upper stages made of Soviet SL-16 rocket bodies

Surprisingly, it's not the hundreds or even thousands of new spacecrafts launched by owners of mega constellations like One Web or SpaceX that have the greatest potential to destroy Earth's orbit. It consists of outdated spacecraft and spent rocket stages that were launched in the early 2000s and during the Cold War.

Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at private debris tracking company Leo Labs, told Space.com in an interview that constellations may have hundreds to thousands of satellites, but they are quite adept at orchestrating themselves. "They can perform man oeuvres to prevent collisions and are very agile thanks to their propulsion system. On the other hand, there is no means for the abandoned objects to move apart from one another."

The SL-16, a massive upper stage of the Russian Zenit rocket weighing 9.9 tons (9 metric tons) and measuring 36 feet (11 meters) long, is the oldest and most dangerous of these abandoned items.

Currently, Leo Labs is keeping an eye on 18 of these rocket stages as they orbit the planet at a height of about 520 miles in one of its "bad neighborhoods" (840 kilometers). It will take a very long time for the debris to descend from this height. Millions of pieces of debris and hundreds of other retired spacecrafts continue to intersect paths with the rockets in the interim.

They resemble a large yellow school bus without a conductor and brakes, according to McKnight. "And the danger increases over time. A collision involving one of these rocket stages very shortly is not out of the question."

Due to the sheer size of these rockets, a collision would result in an enormous amount of space debris fragments, making an already dangerous neighborhood even worse. This could result in the Kessler syndrome, a terrifying scenario of unavoidable collisions like the one portrayed in the 2013 Oscar-winning film "Gravity."

According to Jonathan McDowell, a renowned expert on space debris at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and an astronomer, "if you worry about scenarios like the Kessler syndrome, the probabilities are subject by two big effects striking each other" as that would crop by remote the most rubble that could main to a fetter response.

While the issue with the rocket stage is not specific to Russian technology, McDowell continued, it is related to the launcher design that the Soviet Union, Russia's predecessor, frequently favoured. The majority of rockets used by Europe, the United States, and even China use large first stages that quickly descend back to Earth after launch and a relatively small upper stage to place their payload in orbit.

For instance, the United States would usually use the liquid hydrogen-powered Centaur upper stage, according to McDowell. "By this petrol, you become more much per gal. So, a lesser rocket can accomplish the same task. Kerosene or hydrazine, lower energy chemical propellants that required a larger rocket for the same task, were what the Soviets were using."

Senior Technical Scholar Darren McKnight works for Leo Labs, a private company in California that maps orbital traffic. McKnight participates in the creation of position papers on space debris mitigation as a fellow of the International Academy of Astronautics' Space Debris Committee. He wants to promote environmentally friendly space utilization methods and create technical solutions to the space debris problem.

 

The United States Air Force Academy awarded McKnight a Bachelor of Science in Engineering Studies. The University of New Mexico awarded him a Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering, and the University of Colorado awarded him a Doctor of Philosophy in Aerospace Engineering.

 

2. Cold War surveillance satellites and Russian SL-8 rocket stages

Another type of Russian rocket upper stage, the 1.54-ton (1.4 metric tons) SL-8, was engaged in the close call on January 27. According to McKnight, between the 1960s and 1990s, this rocket stage, which Russia used in its smaller Cosmos rocket family, was responsible for delivering about 145 spy and communication satellites to a height of 605 miles (975 km). This region of near-Earth space is still being contaminated by the satellites, each of which weighs 1,760 pounds (800 kilograms), as well as by the rockets that propelled them.

 

3. fragments of a Chinese anti-satellite missile launch

One of the worst debris-creating incidents in history occurred in 2007 in the undesirable area where the larger SL-16 rocket stages are located: a Chinese anti-satellite missile test that was directed at one of the country's own defunct weather satellites. At a speed of 18,000 mph (29,000 kph), the anti-satellite weapon slammed into the 1,650-pound (750 kg) FNGN spacecraft, shattering it into thousands of pieces as it orbited at an altitude of 537 miles (865 km). Upon impact, the fragments dispersed like balls on a pool table, contaminating areas of near-Earth space hundreds of miles from FNGN’s initial orbit.

 

4. satellites that observe the Planet Landsat and Envisat

Envisat, a decommissioned European Earth-observing satellite, orbits the planet at an altitude of 480 miles (800 km), which is lower than the two major crime-ridden areas. The satellite, however, holds a prominent position on the list of concerning objects as a result of its immense scale.

 

Envisat, which met an untimely demise in 2012, is one of the largest pieces of space junk in orbit and a significant stain on the image of the European Space Agency (ESA), which takes pleasure in being a pioneer in space sustainability. Envisat weighs about 8.8 tons (8 metric tons).

 

5. The Hubble Space Telescope

The iconic Hubble Space Telescope may still have a decade or more to live, but once its purpose is complete, it could become a problematic piece of space debris.

 

The seasoned cosmonaut is heavier than both Envisat and the feared SL-16 rocket stages at 12.4 tons (12.2 metric tons). Since Hubble circles the Earth at a low altitude of 332 miles (535 km), it would probably only take a few years for it to spiral back to our planet. However, due to its size, the telescope wouldn't likely fully burn up in Earth's atmosphere during re-entry. Large chunks of the telescope's scorched body would probably fall to the planet's surface, tempting souvenir hunters and possibly damaging planes in the process.

 

6. Excessive number of constellation spacecraft

Regarding the dangers presented by satellite mega constellations like SpaceX's Starlin and the network run by One Web, experts have somewhat divergent opinions. These constellations are what have caused and will continue to cause the enormous growth in the number of spacecrafts in orbit that we have seen over the past ten years.

 

10,000 objects, both dead and living, accumulated in low Earth orbit in the first 50 years following the launch of the world's first satellite, the Soviet Union's Sputnik 1 in 1957, according to Leo Labs (opens in new tab). Then the new space era began, and the number quickly doubled in just 14 years. According to Leo Labs, there were over 21,000 objects in this highly populated area of space as of the end of 2022.